Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.648261 2.811880 2.990496 3.202019 3.448527 3.730536 4.083473
2025-03-09 2.411636 2.627168 2.876721 3.193735 3.596692 4.109580 4.847079
2025-03-16 2.242326 2.479688 2.764423 3.142671 3.652876 4.356266 5.494096
2025-03-23 2.162219 2.423521 2.747289 3.196154 3.839064 4.806328 6.616898
2025-03-30 2.047869 2.312350 2.646014 3.120093 3.824075 4.944452 7.275434
2025-04-06 1.947815 2.211075 2.547568 3.034440 3.777618 5.014778 7.839009
2025-04-13 1.872591 2.136433 2.477917 2.980848 3.769988 5.146767 8.642008
2025-04-20 1.841111 2.116132 2.478756 3.027353 3.926082 5.620854 10.893459
2025-04-27 1.829576 2.120709 2.512886 3.125406 4.184035 6.401251 16.256354
2025-05-04 1.790321 2.085349 2.487772 3.128380 4.273053 6.846388 22.870734
2025-05-11 1.754656 2.052885 2.464357 3.131100 4.361202 7.334938 38.817549
2025-05-18 1.697669 1.988595 2.391240 3.046871 4.267347 7.281129 47.527609
2025-05-25 1.666451 1.960364 2.371688 3.053343 4.364765 7.879578 NaN
2025-06-01 1.633952 1.929083 2.346037 3.047626 4.437583 8.467444 NaN
2025-06-08 1.593647 1.885162 2.299125 3.001516 4.416086 8.712971 NaN
2025-06-15 1.579602 1.877710 2.306556 3.049933 4.613199 10.040152 NaN
2025-06-22 1.538596 1.830196 2.250431 2.981060 4.527045 10.005357 NaN
2025-06-29 1.497603 1.781629 2.191070 2.903280 4.411824 9.775742 NaN
2025-07-06 1.465444 1.744977 2.148931 2.854496 4.361832 9.880644 NaN
2025-07-13 1.456046 1.740810 2.156802 2.896834 4.540760 11.496629 NaN
2025-07-20 1.457080 1.751686 2.188510 2.985876 4.861690 15.129531 NaN
2025-07-27 1.439699 1.734882 2.175377 2.988572 4.952244 17.353458 NaN
2025-08-03 1.423130 1.718764 2.162641 2.991038 5.043645 20.323798 NaN